Mill Creek Q3 2024 Investment Livestream
Last Week...
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best day in over a year, rising 1.8% and reaching an all-time high, while the S&P 500 hit a new record, with small-cap stocks outperforming tech stocks as market rotation continues.
- Two Federal Reserve officials suggested that while a rate cut could be warranted in the coming months due to a slowdown in inflation, it is unlikely at the upcoming July meeting.
- The central bank may consider lowering rates in September if favorable inflation data continues.
- The IMF warned that new tariffs could revive inflation and force central banks to keep interest rates high, leaving its 2024 global growth forecast unchanged at 3.2% and raising its 2025 forecast to 3.3%.
- The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate steady at 3.75% but signaled potential rate cuts later this year, as inflation remains a concern despite recent declines.
Focus on the Economy for Now
President Biden’s decision not to seek a second term has kept presidential politics at the forefront for many investors. However, it is too early to draw strong investment conclusions from Biden’s stepping aside, as we don’t yet know who the Democratic party nominee will be, nor do we have a sense of their economic priorities.
As of Monday morning, the online prediction market Polymarket puts Vice President Kamala Harris as the favorite, with an 83% likelihood of winning the Democratic nomination and former President Donald Trump at a 64% likelihood of winning the presidential election. These forecasts could change quickly as the Democratic Party works through selecting a candidate.
As always, we’d caution against letting politics dominate investment decisions. Despite longer-term fiscal and protectionist risks, we believe the continued US economic expansion will be the main driver of stock and bond markets in the near term. We discuss these considerations in our 3Q Livestream below.
Watch our recorded webinar from July 17, 2024, in which we provide our quarterly outlook on the financial markets. In this session, Michael Crook, Chief Investment Officer, and guest speaker Giulio Martini, Partner and Director of Strategic Asset Allocation at Lord Abbett, offer their insights.
Disclosures & Important Information
Any views expressed above represent the opinions of Mill Creek Capital Advisers ("MCCA") and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information is for educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, particular investment advice. This publication has been prepared by MCCA. The publication is provided for information purposes only. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources that
MCCA believes to be reliable, but MCCA does not represent or warrant that it is accurate or complete. The views in this publication are those of MCCA and are subject to change, and MCCA has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. While MCCA has obtained information believed to be reliable, MCCA, nor any of their respective officers, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
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