Year Ahead 2026: A Minsky Moment?
We’re pleased to share our Year Ahead 2026 Outlook: A Minsky Moment?. Our forward-looking assessment of the forces shaping markets, portfolios, and policy in the year ahead.
In the lead article, Chief Investment Officer Michael Crook explores how an unprecedented surge in artificial intelligence investment is reshaping the global economy. Drawing parallels to historic infrastructure booms, he examines why AI-driven capital expenditures, tightening energy constraints, and rising leverage may be pushing markets toward a classic late-cycle dynamic, one that warrants both optimism and caution.
The publication also outlines our 2026 economic and asset allocation outlook, including why we expect the backdrop to remain constructive for risk assets even as concentration risk, elevated valuations, and stubborn inflation demand more selectivity. We share updated views across equities, fixed income, and private markets, with an emphasis on diversification beyond the most crowded AI exposures.
The highlights include:
- A private credit spotlight from Nora Pickens, Partner, Investment Strategy, on separating headline risk from fundamentals in a rapidly growing asset class
- A private infrastructure deep dive from Sam McFall, MD, Investment Strategy on why digital transformation, energy transition, and transportation upgrades are creating durable, inflation-linked opportunities
- A private equity perspective from Andrew Murray, MD, Private Equity, on the rise of evergreen structures and what their growth means for investors over the next cycle
We hope this year’s outlook challenges assumptions, sharpens perspective, and sparks thoughtful conversation as we look ahead to 2026.
Download the Year Ahead 2026 Outlook here.
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Any views expressed above represent the opinions of Mill Creek Capital Advisers ("MCCA") and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information is for educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, particular investment advice. This publication has been prepared by MCCA. The publication is provided for information purposes only. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources that
MCCA believes to be reliable, but MCCA does not represent or warrant that it is accurate or complete. The views in this publication are those of MCCA and are subject to change, and MCCA has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. While MCCA has obtained information believed to be reliable, MCCA, nor any of their respective officers, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
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